بررسی و مقایسه روند سال‌خوردگی جمعیت در کشورهای آسیایی و اروپایی طی سال های 1950 تا 2015

Objectives The study aimed at performing a comparative analysis of the aging population in European and Asian countries during 1950 and 2015. Methods & Materials This study has been conducted through a secondary analysis, and the data for 90 European and Asian countries were derived from the UN Population division. The used statistical method was history of survival analysis. The statistical package of Stata was used to perform statistical analyses of non-parametric methods of estimation of Kaplan-Meier and Nelson – Ellen’s survival function, and Cox’s semi-parametric proportional hazard model.  Results The study estimates showed that total fertility rates and life expectancy in both Europe and Asia were convergent in nature. The probability of occurrence of aging has a negative relationship with total fertility rate and a positive relationship with life expectancy. Estimation of survival function and cumulative hazard function for the two study areas in 2015 indicated that probability of occurrence of aging was significantly different. Survival function of aging was close to zero for European countries. This means that most European countries have entered the aging process while the likely to survive an accident for Asian countries was more than 0.75. Conclusion According to the results, during 1950 to 2015, the percentages of aging populations in all regions of the European continent was dramatically higher than that of the Asian countries. In recent decades, although there has been a rapid fall in fertility rate and increased life expectancy among the less developed Asian countries, the process of population aging has increased. This index in Asian countries is believed to outpace the European countries by 2050.